Will Labour’s energy plans cost 100,000 Scottish jobs?

The Scottish National Party (SNP) has claimed several times that Labour’s energy plans could cost up “up to 100,000 Scottish jobs”. 

This figure is based on estimates from an investment bank, but those figures look at jobs across the UK, not just in Scotland and include both directly and indirectly employed roles.

Where does the claim come from?

Labour has said it would increase the Energy Profits Levy (commonly referred to as the ‘windfall tax’) on oil and gas companies by three percentage points (from 35% of ring fenced profits to 38%), taking the overall tax rate for the sector to 78%, while also extending the Levy to the end of the next parliament (as opposed to current plans, which will see the Levy sunset at the end of the 2028/29 financial year). 

The 100,000 figure appears to be based on estimates by the investment bank Stifel of the impact of increasing the windfall tax on North Sea oil and gas companies. The SNP previously told The Ferret that 100,000 figure came from the Aberdeen and Grampian Chamber of Commerce (AGCC). However the AGCC was using statistics from Stifel. 

Stifel’s report says that these job losses could take place across the “UK North Sea” sector (not just in Scotland) “possibly as quickly as by the next general election in 2029”, and includes jobs that are directly and indirectly supported by the industry. 

The report’s author, Chris Wheaton, told Full Fact that the analysis looked at the impact on UK jobs of higher windfall taxes, which he estimated could result in around 100,000 job losses. 

Mr Wheaton said his analysis “did not consider the possible geographic distribution of those job losses.”

He pointed Full Fact to the underlying UK jobs data in his analysis from the Scottish government’s energy statistics website. In 2021, the latest year for which data is available, the oil and gas industry directly or indirectly employed a total of 200,800 people across the UK. Total employment for Scotland alone was 82,500. This is higher than in 2020, but lower than between 2015 and 2019.

Looking at other analysis

Industry body Offshore Energies UK (OEUK) offers an alternative figure for the impact of Labour’s energy policies, warning that “with no new investment”, 42,000 jobs in the UK’s offshore energy industry could be lost. It estimates there are currently 93,600 jobs in Scotland, and around 220,000 across the UK, supported by the oil and gas sector. 

Both Stifel and OEUK put the total number of Scottish jobs supported by oil and gas at under 100,000.

The SNP did not directly address its use of the 100,000 figure when asked about it by Full Fact, but SNP energy spokesperson Dave Doogan said: "Industry and unions have warned the Labour Party's plans would destroy thousands of jobs, while taking Scotland's energy wealth and spending it on nuclear power plants in England.”

The Welsh secretary David TC Davies also used the 100,000 figure recently, telling the Today programme [1:39:20] that if the UK couldn’t access oil and gas in the north sea “we will lose at least 100,000 jobs that are in the industry”.

This is a broadly correct use of Stifel’s analysis as it does not specify where these job losses would fall. 

It’s worth noting that this analysis, shown in figure 3, suggests that jobs could be lost in the future if investment declines. However, given that the analysis forecasts investment in the oil and gas industry could decrease even without the increased windfall tax, it’s not clear how many of these jobs Stifel estimates would have been lost even in a scenario where the windfall tax did not increase. It also does not take into account the impact of any possible creation of new jobs to replace those being lost (though it does argue that a reduction in North Sea investment “would mean jobs permanently leaving the UK, and fewer opportunities for “green” jobs in the UK). 

A report by the Climate Change Committee—the UK Government’s independent climate adviser—said in May 2023 that there is “potential for the Net Zero transition to create more jobs than will be lost”. It estimated that between 135,000 and 725,000 net new jobs could be created by 2030 in low-carbon sectors.

This is part of our in-depth coverage of the 2024 general election. You can read more of our live fact checking of the campaign here.