Politics Live

Full Fact’s rolling blog of fact checks, commentary and analysis.

28 June 2024, 2.30pm

How many people on the NHS waiting list are long-term sick?

During the BBC debate on Wednesday night between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, an audience member told both men that she used to work but had had to stop due to illness. 

Following that question, Mr Starmer said “if we are going to get people back into work is we have to tackle these terrible waiting lists”. Later, Mr Sunak challenged this saying: “most of the people who we’re talking about […] aren't on an NHS waiting list.” 

We've also been asked on X about how many people are out of work and also on the NHS waiting list. 

The NHS does not publish figures for how many people on the waiting list are in employment or classed as long-term sick so it cannot prove whether the claims by Mr Sunak or Mr Starmer are correct.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimated in 2022 that there were 650,000 people who were economically inactive—defined as people not in employment who have not been seeking work within the last 4 weeks and/or are unable to start work within the next 2 weeks—due to long term sickness on the NHS waiting list, which was a quarter of the long-term sick inactive population. 

An Office for National Statistics (ONS) survey conducted between 16 January and 15 February 2024, found that 49% of people who are economically inactive due to long term sickness said they were waiting for a hospital appointment, test or to start receiving medical treatment through the NHS. 

However, this is not the same as the main NHS waiting list which only covers consultant-led care. Those who said they are waiting for care could be waiting for follow-up appointments, mental health or community services, none of which are counted in the waiting list. 

However, the OBR said last year that “the rising NHS waiting list itself is unlikely to have been a significant driver of rising inactivity due to long-term sickness in recent years”. 

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28 June 2024, 2.17pm

Labour leaflet repeats claim about being £5,883 worse off under the Conservatives

We’ve seen a leaflet from Labour making the claim that “since 2019 Tory chaos has cost you £5,883”.

This isn’t the first time Labour have made a claim using this figure, and there are a number of problems with it. They previously claimed “typical families” are £5,883 worse off “under Rishi Sunak”.

But the Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts that real household disposable income per person will fall by £166 between 2019/20 and 2024/25, from £21,767 to £21,601. This equates to just under £400 for the average household.

So where did Labour’s figure come from? The party says it’s the increase in six household costs faced by “typical families” since 2019:

  • Energy price cap: £479 
  • Groceries: £1,040
  • Council tax: £421
  • Mortgages: £2,880
  • Personal tax: £874
  • Motoring: £189

But there are a number of problems with this figure.

Firstly, it only considers six household outgoings, some of which will not apply to many families—such as those who don’t have a car or mortgage—and doesn’t count others like water and phone bills.

Secondly, it doesn’t take into account any changes in wages or benefits since 2019.

We first fact checked this earlier in the month and the leaflet repeating the claim has been sent out in the Earley and Woodley constituency.

27 June 2024, 2.17pm

Have 15,000 or 50,000 arrived on small boats since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister?

While monitoring media outlets this morning we spotted that the lead article on the front page of today's Daily Telegraph (‘Sunak's plea to voters: Don't surrender Britain to Labour’) quotes Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer in last night’s BBC Prime Ministerial Debate saying: “There are tens of thousands, 15,000 people have come [across the Channel] since Rishi Sunak has been Prime Minister.” 

The Daily Express, on page four (‘Sunak rips into Starmer on immigration in TV debate’), also includes the same quote.

But we think this is an error and possibly misquotes Mr Starmer. On BBC iPlayer at 25:27 we think Mr Starmer says “50,000 people” not 15,000. At other points throughout the debate (22:15, 28:37 and 29:56) we think he also says 50,000.

Indeed, this figure tallies with reports this week that more than 50,000 migrants have arrived in the UK after crossing the Channel since Mr Sunak became Prime Minister, including over 13,000 so far this year. 

Since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister on 25 October 2022 until yesterday (26 June 2024) 50,258 people have arrived on small boats. 

We have contacted the Labour party, as well as the Telegraph and Express for comment, and will update this post if they respond.

27 June 2024, 10.31am

Some common misunderstandings about junior doctors’ pay

Junior doctors—now also called “resident doctors”—begin a five-day strike in England today. In the past we’ve seen these strikes provoke much discussion (and some confusion) about their pay.

For one thing, no junior doctors are currently paid £14 an hour. As we’ve said more than once, this figure was the basic pay (in 2022/23) for first-year doctors only (who make up about a tenth of all junior doctors). 

Most junior doctors earn substantially more than this because they are more senior, or because of extra earnings for things like unsocial hours. In any case, a pay rise last year means that even the basic pay of first-year doctors is now slightly higher, at £15.53 an hour. 

At the time of writing, we don’t yet know what the Review Body on Doctors’ and Dentists’ Remuneration will recommend for 2024/25.  

The real value of junior doctors’ pay has certainly fallen since the late 2000s, but we have seen claims that doctors received an above inflation pay rise last year. This was debatable, at least where junior doctors were concerned, because it depended which measure of inflation you used.

We’ve also seen some recent arguments about how much it would cost the government to meet junior doctors’ pay demands. The health secretary Victoria Atkins and the BMA, a union that represents many junior doctors, have disagreed about this recently.

While we haven’t checked those recent claims specifically, the Department of Health and Social Care and the BMA have disagreed about this before. In our previous fact check on the subject, we explained that the real issue on that occasion was whether you accounted for the money that doctors pay back to the government in tax.  

You’ll find these and other fact checks about junior doctors on our dedicated junior doctors page.

26 June 2024, 9.49pm

Posted on X

Rishi Sunak said in the #BBCDebate that “we have started cutting your taxes and I will keep cutting your taxes”.

National Insurance contributions have been reduced from 12% to 8%, but the so-called ‘tax burden’ is high, and forecast to rise further. #GE24

The effective personal tax rate is at its lowest since 1975, but that doesn’t include all the taxes people pay.

We’ve written more here. #BBCDebate #GE24
https://buff.ly/3xzjHZn

26 June 2024, 9.35pm

Posted on X

Rishi Sunak said at #BBCDebate “for everyone in work we are going to continue cutting National Insurance, £900 this year”.

That’s how much someone on the average salary, not everyone in work, will save on NI this year but it doesn’t account for other tax changes. #GE24

@TheIFS says once the impact of all tax changes since 2021 is factored in, the average worker will save £340 in 2024/25.

We recently checked a similar claim. #BBCDebate #GE24

https://buff.ly/3zsqZhY

26 June 2024, 9.14pm

Posted on X

During the #BBCDebate Keir Starmer said Labour’s manifesto plans are “fully funded” and “fully costed”.

But @TheIFS cast doubt on both Labour and the Conservatives’ claims to have fully-costed manifestos earlier this week. #GE24

https://buff.ly/3RJOZUk

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26 June 2024, 9.14pm

Posted on X

In the #BBCDebate Rishi Sunak said the UK’s economy in the first quarter of this year was the “fastest growing in the G7”.

GDP figures for Q1 2024 show this is right, but last year the UK’s annual growth was among the worst in the G7. #GE24
https://buff.ly/3zsEyxT

26 June 2024, 8.52pm

Posted on X

During the #BBCDebate, Keir Starmer claimed “nearly 8 million people are on the waiting list”.

But that’s not what NHS England data shows. There are 7.6 million *cases* on the waiting list, involving about 6.3 million *patients*. #GE24 https://buff.ly/3xCmjpj
We’ve seen similar claims from other politicians and parties too.

As we’ve written before, there are always more cases than people in the data, because some people are awaiting treatment for more than one thing. #BBCDebate #GE24

26 June 2024, 8.14pm

Posted on X

We’re fact checking the #BBCDebate between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer—the last scheduled head-to-head for these two leaders in this election campaign. 🍿 #GE24

👀 Follow along with us on X!

https://buff.ly/3RLxzqb

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