Three Parliamentary constituencies have majority Muslim populations, not 30

“Muslims make up a majority in more than 30 constituencies, and if they turn away from the [Labour] party it could cost them seats.”

A Channel 4 News report [now removed online] inaccurately claimed that “Muslims make up a majority in more than 30 constituencies”.

Since this fact check was first published, Channel 4 News has removed the content from its website platform.

The report, from 21 October 2023, covered the resignation of more than 20 local Labour party councillors over remarks made by Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer on the conflict between Israel and Gaza during an interview on LBC.

Of the response to Mr Starmer’s comments, the Channel 4 journalist said: “it matters because Muslims make up a majority in more than 30 constituencies, and if they turn away from the party it could cost them seats”.

As pointed out by UK in a Changing Europe senior fellow Rob Ford, data from the 2021 Census shows that this figure is far too high.

There are three Parliamentary constituencies in England and Wales where people identifying as Muslim make up the majority of the population.

In Birmingham, Hodge Hill 62.4% of constituents identify as Muslim, with 58.7% identifying as Muslim in Bradford West, and 55.9% in Birmingham, Hall Green.

In a further 11 constituencies, Muslims are the largest religious group (including those with no religion), but don’t account for a majority of the population.

It’s worth noting that these figures refer to the population of each constituency on the day of the 2021 Census, not the number of voters (for example, they include under 18s and foreign nationals not eligible to vote).

These figures also do not include UK Parliamentary constituencies in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

According to separate data from the 2021 Census in Northern Ireland, there were no UK Parliamentary constituencies in Northern Ireland where Muslims were the majority of the population, or the largest religion.

Data on religion from Scotland’s 2022 Census is yet to be published. According to the 2011 Census in Scotland there were no constituencies where Muslims were the majority of the population, or the largest religion.

It’s possible that the journalist was intending to refer to research published by the Muslim Council of Britain ahead of the 2019 General Election, which listed 31 constituencies in the UK where the Muslim population was large enough to potentially swing the outcome.

This research, which was reported in the media at the time, listed a number of constituencies where Muslim voters could have a “high” or “medium” impact, based on the estimated number of eligible Muslim voters in a seat, compared to the size of the seat’s majority at the time.

However, that’s not the same as saying that this number of constituencies have a majority Muslim population.

Broadcasters should make every effort to achieve due accuracy in all output. False or misleading claims should be appropriately and clearly corrected in a timely manner. If a clip is still available on its platform, a broadcaster has a responsibility to ensure no more viewers are misled.

Image courtesy of JimmyGuano