Ukraine peace talks explained: what’s happening and what could be on the table?

Three years on from the start of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, talk of possible negotiations to end the war has dominated the headlines in recent weeks, with leaders from Ukraine, Russia, the United States and Europe setting out some of their ambitions, and red lines, for a future peace agreement.

Renewed focus on an end to the war has been partly catalysed by the return of US President Donald Trump to office, which has led to uncertainty over the US’s role in supporting Ukraine going forward, and a very public breakdown in relations between Mr Trump and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

We’ve taken a look here at some of the claims we’ve seen from key players in the process, what’s been said about a possible end to the conflict and what topics could be on the table. This explainer was last updated at 4pm on Tuesday 4 March and the information below is correct as of then.

We’ll continue to update this article as new information becomes available. If you’ve seen something you think we should add, have spotted a claim for us to fact check or have a question you’d like us to answer, please let us know here.

What talks have taken place and who is involved?

Prior to recent developments, talks with Russia over a possible deal had not been held since the early months of the war in 2022, when representatives from Ukraine and Russia met on three occasions, but reached no agreement.

That changed on 12 February this year, when Mr Trump held a phone call with Russian president Vladimir Putin, in which the two leaders agreed to begin discussions over a “possible Ukraine settlement”.

Following that conversation, it was agreed that US and Russian officials, including US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, would meet in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Bilateral talks between the two countries were held on 18 February.

While the talks were not formal peace negotiations, Mr Lavrov said the two sides had “agreed that a ‘process for Ukrainian settlement’ will be initiated shortly”.

Neither Ukraine nor representatives from European countries were invited to the Riyadh discussions, though several European leaders met in Paris for an emergency summit on Ukraine on 17 February.

Mr Zelenskyy has said that Ukraine will not accept any agreements made without its involvement, and has also called for European representatives to be involved in talks.

Speaking on 19 February, Mr Trump responded to Mr Zelenskyy’s comments and appeared to suggest that Ukraine had “started” the war with Russia. We wrote about this claim at the time on our politics live blog—it is a fact that Russia launched a full-scale military invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Mr Trump has also claimed that Mr Zelenskyy is a “dictator without elections”, based on the fact that Ukrainian presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for last year were postponed due to the war, and no new dates for these have yet been set. We’ve also written about this claim and looked at how common it is for democracies to postpone elections during wartime.

In a news conference held with European leaders on 24 February, the third anniversary of the Russian invasion, Mr Zelenskyy said he hoped Ukraine could “finish the war this year”.

Between 24 and 28 February Mr Trump held meetings at the White House with French president Emmanuel Macron, UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, and Mr Zelenskyy, with the latter culminating in a heated argument between the two leaders, as Mr Trump told Mr Zelenskyy “you’re either going to make a deal or we are out”.

More than a dozen leaders from across Europe, as well as Canada and Turkey, gathered in London on 2 March for a summit on Ukraine.

In a statement following the summit, Mr Starmer said the leaders had reaffirmed that there must be “no talks on Ukraine without Ukraine” and “agreed that the UK, France and others will work with Ukraine on a plan to stop the fighting which we will discuss further with the US and take forward together”. Mr Starmer also set out a four-point plan for ongoing support for Ukraine.

Following the summit Mr Macron said France and the UK had proposed a one-month truce “in the air, at sea and on energy infrastructure”—however the UK government later said “no agreement” on this had been reached.

What could happen to Ukraine’s territory?

One of the points around which negotiations may revolve is the issue of Ukraine’s borders.

At the start of 2025, roughly one-fifth of Ukraine was under Russian control. Ukraine has demanded the return of all territory seized by Russia—including the Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk and Luhansk regions in eastern Ukraine, which were annexed by Russia following its invasion in 2022, as well as the Crimean peninsula, which has been under Russian control since it was annexed in 2014.

These annexations have been widely condemned as being in breach of international law.

Following a surprise offensive in August 2024, Ukraine seized some territory in Russia’s Kursk region. Mr Zelenskyy has said this could be swapped for Russian-occupied territory in Ukraine.

This suggestion appeared to be ruled out by Russia, which has described the idea of a territory swap as part of a peace deal as “impossible”. Russia has demanded that Ukraine withdraw entirely from the four regions it annexed in 2022.

In a speech made at NATO’s headquarters on 12 February—the same day Mr Trump and Mr Putin spoke by phone—the US defence secretary Pete Hegseth said that “returning to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective”, indicating that the US would be unlikely to support Ukraine’s demand for the full return of Russian-occupied territory.

What is NATO and is Ukraine going to join it?

The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, or NATO, is a military alliance which was formed by Western allies in the aftermath of the Second World War in direct response to Soviet Union expansion in eastern Europe.

Upon its establishment in 1949 it consisted of 12 members: Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the UK and the US.

In the decades since, it has expanded to a total of 32 members across Europe and North America, including a number of former Soviet states. Most recently, Finland and Sweden became official NATO members in 2023 and 2024 respectively.

In 2022, Ukraine formally applied to join NATO in a “fast-tracked” process in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion. But debate over Ukraine’s potential accession to NATO precedes the current conflict. 

In 2008, the organisation declared that Ukraine and Georgia would both become members of NATO, but did not establish a specific process or timeline for this to take place. Neither have yet become NATO members in the 17 years since this declaration was made.

Ukraine’s potential involvement in NATO has been controversial, as members of the organisation are covered by a collective defence agreement—meaning if one of them is attacked, other members are obliged to come to their defence. It’s therefore considered unlikely that Ukraine would be able to join NATO while the war with Russia is ongoing, as this could bring NATO members into direct conflict with Russia.

Russia has long opposed NATO membership for Ukraine, and has called on the organisation to rescind its promise of eventual membership for the country. It has also cited Ukraine’s ambitions to join NATO as a reason for the war in Ukraine.

Mr Hegseth said on 12 February that the US—which spends by far the largest amount on defence in cash terms among NATO members—“does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement”. However, he later clarified his comments, saying “everything is on the table”.

In a news conference marking three years since the Russian invasion, Mr Zelenskyy said he would be willing to give up his presidency in exchange for Ukrainian NATO membership, telling reporters: “If to achieve peace you really need me to give up my post – I’m ready. I can trade it for NATO membership, if there are such conditions.”

While Ukraine is not part of NATO, it has been the recipient of large amounts of military, financial and humanitarian aid from both the US and Europe. We’ve written more about the figures involved here.

Could UK troops be sent to Ukraine?

Ukraine has called for any peace deal to include “security guarantees” to prevent Russia from making any further incursions. It’s been suggested that this could involve the presence of international “peacekeeping forces” in the country.

In an article published in the Daily Telegraph on 16 February, Mr Starmer said that he was prepared to commit UK forces to guarantee security as part of a possible peace deal. He did not confirm how many troops he would be willing to commit—however it’s been reported that the UK has been working alongside France on a plan which could involve up to 30,000 European troops being deployed as part of a peacekeeping force in Ukraine.

A report published by The Times on 19 February suggested this plan involved troops being stationed away from front lines, and could also see RAF planes deployed as part of an “air policing” mission.

We’ve asked Number 10 how many British troops would be deployed to Ukraine under this plan.

What about troops from other countries?

Both the outgoing German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and likely incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz have said it is “too early” to talk about the possibility of sending German forces to Ukraine as part of a peace deal, however.

In his 16 February article Mr Starmer said that any European presence would require  American support, writing “only the US can deter Putin from attacking again”. These comments echo the view of Mr Zelenskyy, who had told the Guardian on 10 February that “security guarantees without America are not real security guarantees”.

Mr Starmer has spoken of his belief in the need for a so-called US “backstop”, though he did not clarify exactly what guarantees he thought would be required from the US.

But the level of military support the US may be willing to provide has been the subject of significant uncertainty.

The US has ruled out deploying its own forces on the ground in Ukraine as part of a peace deal, and has called on European nations to increase defence spending.

Mr Trump has said that Europe should be responsible for providing security guarantees, and has also suggested that he will not discuss guarantees until a peace deal has been agreed.

Russia, meanwhile, has said it would not accept proposals for European forces in Ukraine, noting that it would mean troops from a NATO member state being present in the country. 

What have the US and Ukraine agreed on minerals?

Alongside discussions about future peace negotiations, the US and Ukraine have been negotiating an agreement on the development of Ukraine’s mineral resources.

While not directly related to talks over ending the war, the deal has been framed by some media as an attempt by the Ukrainian government to “improve relations” with Mr Trump, who has spoken about the deal as a way for the US to recoup some of the money it has spent on aid to Ukraine.

According to the Financial Times, the deal will “establish a fund into which Ukraine would contribute 50 per cent of proceeds from the ‘future monetisation’ of state-owned mineral resources, including oil and gas, and associated logistics. The fund would invest in projects in Ukraine.”

It’s also been reported that the agreement will not include any explicit security guarantees or aid commitments from the US, although Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Schmyhal told Ukrainian media that a clause in the agreement says the US is “supporting Ukraine's efforts to obtain security guarantees needed to build lasting peace”.

Mr Trump and Mr Zelenskyy were expected to sign the agreement on 28 February. Mr Zelenskyy was asked to leave the White House after the argument between the pair, though he has since said that he remains ready to sign the agreement “any time”. 

On 3 March, the United States announced a “pause” on the shipment of all previously-committed military aid to Ukraine, with a White House official saying: “The president has been clear that he is focused on peace. We need our partners to be committed to that goal as well. We are pausing and reviewing our aid to ensure that it is contributing to a solution.”